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Recession? Not in Real Estate…

Recession? Not in Real Estate…

July 25, 2022 11:11 am

For those of us who actively bought and sold homes between 2005 and 2012, we know what it was like to “buy high” and “sell low”. Many of us experienced losses on our homes and or our investments in real estate. Those of us who walked down that path are wiser for it and “we know” what is coming next. The old English proverb comes to mind, fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.  

None of us today want to repeat our mistakes of the past, or see our children make the same ill-advised decisions that ended up costing us thousands of dollars. With record inflation, rising interest rates, an unstable stock market, and the news headlines all predicting this upcoming or current recession, many real estate buyers are going to “sit and wait.” They believe that the market has peaked, and prices will come down.  

But we are not seeing that happen in the market, not today, not in Portland, Oregon. For the past 120 days we have heard the pessimistic rhetoric in the media and even saw a bit of pause for buyers as interest rates doubled. The market was slowing down. No longer were we seeing 10 offers on a property the first weekend it hit the market. Instead, shockingly, it could take an entire two weeks to sell a property for full price with one offer. The reality is this shift, so far, simply looks like the market may be returning to “normal.” Yes, a normal market where the supply and the demand are in balance. It is a market where you need to hire a good Realtor, be a student of your micro-market, and show patience. 

Interestingly, buyers have quickly adjusted to the higher interest rates, and we are seeing multiple offers again. Last week, our 18 transactions averaged 3 offers in the first weekend and there are still signs that prices are increasing. Why? The simple reason is there is still little, or no, supply of homes and the demand far exceeds the supply.  

It does not appear there will be a recession in real estate this time around, at least not in our town. We just don’t have the supply and there is no relief in sight. Portland is a small city and the migration from California and even Seattle continues as prices here are still lower than our coastal neighbors. Additionally, due to urban growth boundaries and other regulations land prices are high and the approval process, infrastructure, and permitting for new construction can take well over a year. Today, being a home builder is a highly speculative process with more risk than ever. Thus, there are fewer builders with the financial ability to build homes. 

Finally, we are hearing that there is an increase in “price reductions,” which is a sign that the market is coming down. But peel back the layers with your agent and take a deep dive into those homes. Typically, what you find is that those properties were just overpriced from the outset. Good and great properties that are accurately priced are still going to see multiple offers. 

For those of you who are considering waiting, there is nothing to suggest that real estate will be less expensive in the coming decade. While interest rates are double what they were, they are still historically fantastic. And with record inflation, homes are flat out going to become more expensive over time. Real estate investment has consistently proven to be the best hedge against inflation and if you want to be a future homeowner, you want to be ready to seize the day.  

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“

I have worked with Lee Davies on a few real estate sell/purchases over the years. He/His team is always focused on the clients needs. They have a true understanding of the market as a whole and understand every client, even a returning client needs individual and unique industry advise. A sell/purchase during this pandemic gives a new meaning to customer service and Lee and his team did not disappoint once again. Jennifer Holland was my go to realtor and I can count hundreds of text messages and emails between us through out the process. She never sleeps, is so professional and knows what you need before you do. Thank you to team Lee Davies and Jennifer Holland

Barbara F. - Portland, Oregon

“

It had been over 25 years since we had bought or sold a home and Lee Davies/Jen Holland helped us do both , in a very competitive market. We found a home that we liked in a neighborhood we have always been interested in and contacted lee for help in the buying process. He and his associate Jen Holland helped us to write a winning offer and then helped us navigate the inspection period. We also hired them to list our existing home which , at over 100 years old, was a special property that required a buyer who understood the special properties of a historic home. Jen’s attention to detail through the marketing process and Lee’s strategic advice on fielding the many offers we received in a short time were invaluable in securing a successful sale at an excellent price. This is an experienced team who has no doubt seen it all!

tuchmanns - Portland, Oregon

“

We came to work with Victoria Marchese via a recommendation and we couldn’t be happier. She was a consummate professional. Her communication skills meant we never felt out of the loop, and as first-time home buyers, the way she talked us through our questions was vital for us during the process. In the beginning, Victoria truly took the time to get a deeper understanding of what we were looking for in a home; we never felt like just another client. When negotiating repairs, even up against deadlines, she always had our best interest front and center. All of the challenges that you would think come with buying a home during a pandemic were virtually non-existent for us, and I put that down to Victoria’s excellent work ethic and guidance. I would definitely recommend her to friends and family.

Ben M. - Portland, Oregon

“

Tony Apa and Courtney Clarke were a fantastic team.  They literally came to our house for the first time in the middle of a remodel and within 2.5 weeks of meeting them, our house was pending.  From the staging to the brochures to the house video, they knew how to do it all. They are a fantastic team that complement each other well in terms of IT expertise, communication with clients and potential buyers, as well as friendliness and trustworthiness.  I 100% recommend them and you will be in great hands with them.

anu b. - Portland, Oregon

“

We have been so impressed by the responsiveness and resourcefulness of Tony Apa and Courtney Clarke. From the start of the process and understanding our needs all the way to post-close. What an amazing team! Thank you, thank you, thank YOU!

David N. - Portland, Oregon

“

Shelly Brown is a fantastic and professional to work with! Shelly really knows PDX real estate and is skilled at the art of negotiation. She really looked out for our best interests as buyers. Shelly is fantastic at keeping clients updated throughout the whole buying process. She is responsive to any questions or concerns. I would highly recommend buying a home with her.

Paige P. - Portland, Oregon

“

We cannot begin to express what an amazing experience we have had with Shelly Brown and Grace. We sold and bought with them and it has been nothing short of perfection. Shelly has an incredible knowledge of the market and the latest rules and regulations. When you work with Shelly you really feel like she is listening to your needs and desires and puts them into action during the selling/buying process. Grace does such a great job of keeping all of the wheels moving along and communicates clearly during the process. They have both been responsive above and beyond what we have ever experienced. Thank you for making our transitions both buying and selling a real effortless and smooth transformation for our family.

Leonard - Portland, Oregon

“

Sarah Pitzman is extremely knowledgeable, prompt and responsive. She provide excellent customer service and went above and beyond expectations. Sarah also had great negotiation skills and knowledgeable about the selling and purchasing process.

elizwhite - Portland, Oregon

“

We started working with Lauren Sinha in 2017 looking to buy are first home.  Our experience then was amazing and Lauren took so much of the stress of being a first time home buyer off of our shoulders.  As we started to look at our buy our next home we immediately thought of Lauren.  We spent several months looking at dozens of homes this year in a crazy market.  After multiple offers and being out bid, we finally found a home we absolutely love.  Lauren knows the market and how to close a deal.  When it comes time to selling our home Lauren will be our first call and she is the only agent we refer people too.

Max T. - Portland, Oregon

“

Kendall Bergstrom is fantastic. She was thoughtful, listened to our needs, and found us a number of amazing homes. Most importantly, she made what I would consider “scary” – moving to an entirely new state – comfortable and enjoyable. I can’t recommend Kendall enough.

Steve M. - Portland, Oregon

“

Kendall Bergstrom is the most intelligent, market savvy and thoughtful agent I have ever met. She consistently gave us great advice and information from price setting to staging to negotiations. She was always two steps ahead and worked diligently on our behalf. It was the most painless experience in real estate I have had. I would work with her again any day.

Steve D. - Lake Oswego, Oregon

“

The Kendall Bergstrom team is the rumoured golden unicorn in the sales and service industry! Many-many positive differences from other brokers. Kendall is a lightning fast communicator, honest, trustworthy, market-precise, and always up to speed on value and projected ROI. My spouse and I worked with Kendall for over a year (through Covid-19), though the market was sparse, we persisted and Kendall stayed the course. We were buying from the east coast and needed someone to exercise all five senses for us. That is a great deal of responsibility and Kendall bore this task with complete and utter GRACE. The FIRST home that we proceeded with showed major red flags and Kendall was quick to signal caution and counsel us- even though it is not what we wanted to hear and cost her a sale. However, patience obtains ALL, because just three months later our dream home came up for purchase. We were thankful that we had waited and stopped the first sale. After moving through the negotiation, inspection and closing process with Kendall nearly twice, I can easily say that every step was clearly thought out, monitored and expertly managed. I can not talk about Kendall without including her team. We were assigned to work with Kelly, who was a phenomenon on her own. She never tired of my questions, requests for video, facetime, measurements and endless contractor referrals. Having a direct line to Kelly was akin to having a personal concierge with dedicated knowledge of Portland’s west side. Kendall and Kelly were both present for the walk through prior to close. Kendall beautifully and tactfully caught errors and oversights missed by the selling party. She quickly had everything righted for us without us even asking. Also, we found a lovely assortment of thoughtful items placed throughout our home to help with the move in from PPE, toiletry basics, kitchen supplies and a lovely gift basket. I have been through the process seven times and I am sure that you can NOT do better.

Walker Blake J. - Portland, Oregon

Contact Us

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Portland, OR 97225

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148 B Avenue, Suite 100
Lake Oswego, OR 97034

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